I’m very excited to announce that the model has improved significantly from last week. I found that truly special 18 year old hitters weren’t getting enough of a score boost. The fix was easy: expand the logic I was using for 17 year old hitters, to 18 year old hitters. One of the gems uncovered from this recalibration was…

Juan Torres

Torres is a DSL repeater. The 5’10”, 162 pound 2B signed for $50,000 way back in January of last year, and had a fairly successful first season: .359/.406/.516 with a .157 ISO. Those are decent numbers, and one might even expect a promotion. However, his 0.30 BB/K told the Yankees, “This guy needs more time in Boca Chica, or his confidence will be absolutely destroyed with stateside pitching.”

And what a smart decision that was. He’s improved his BB/K to a pristine 1.27, and cut his K% from 11.7% to 8.0%. Across the board, his numbers are improving: .354/.435/.595 with a much improved .241 ISO. His GB% is down too, from a slightly worrisome 46.5% to a much more palatable 40.6%.

AND I’LL WRITE THIS ENTIRE PARAGRAPH IN UPPER CASE BECAUSE I FEEL LIKE IT’S JUSTIFIED. THE ONLY 18 YEAR OLD HITTERS IN THE LAST 20 YEARS TO STRIKE OUT LESS THAN 10% OF THE TIME AND POST AN ISO GREATER THAN .200 IS:

CJ ABRAMS AND JUAN TORRES.

Ok, back to normal writing. Let’s pump the breaks here, as Abrams did it stateside in the Arizona League. I am NOT in any way saying Torres possesses “CJ Abrams potential.” I just wanted to highlight just how special a season he’s having. An 18 year old with plus plus contact ability combined with above average power is an extremely rare profile. It just simply defies conventional wisdom. The tradeoff to power is increased whiff. Torres has the innate ability to challenge that sentiment emphatically. Let’s look at his swing:

Take a look at his head position. It remains completely dead still through the violent rotation of his body, from heel plant to follow-through. He’s not selling out for power or making his swing erratic, because he doesn’t need to; you can clearly see the #77 and the coil he makes with his upper torso. It’s one of the cleanest swings I’ve seen so far this summer, and it’s showing up in the box score.

He’s getting overshadowed by his counterpart Yostin Peña, but this creates the perfect buy window. While everyone is trying to trade with the team that got lucky and added Yostin a month ago, you have the perfect opportunity to snipe an incredibly exciting 18 year old DSL prospect. Usually this is an oxymoron, but that couldn’t be further from the truth with Torres.

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Jarvis Gomez

Jarvis Gomez is an outfielder signed for $100,000 by the Mariners. At 5’11” 175 pounds, he’s at a perfect foundation to develop into a solid typical right fielder frame. For much of the DSL season, all the hype has been about Juan Rijo and Gregory Pio. They were signed for $2.2 million and $2.9 million respectively. Of course there’d be more buzz about them. But I suggest here that the hype might be placed in the wrong players right now, and why Jarvis Gomez can emerge as the number one Mariners DSL prospect from the 2026 class.

This past week, Gomez hit back to back home runs, proving that he has more power than initially expected. On the season, his metrics show decent power: .189 ISO, .557 SLG, and 12 XBH. It’s nothing that really jumps off the page. But combine that with a 14.3% K% and 1.00 BB/K, and it gets the Seed Stage Model antennas perked up.

Unfortunately, the Mariners DSL coverage on X is iffy, and I couldn’t find any video of his swing. But let’s explore why the Model doesn’t like Pio or Rijo as much.

For Pio, it’s simple: the power hasn’t entirely materialized in game just yet. He’s running a .163 ISO and .450 SLG, which historically places Pio in a harder time to prove he actually has meaningful power once he’s promoted stateside.

Rijo has enough power, but his contact skills and plate discipline leave some points on the table. It’s not egregiously terrible: 20.3% K%, 0.80 BB/K; but it’s enough to make the model worry a bit.

This is not meant to bash on these two prospects; they are still elite 17 year old hitters with a lot of projection. The Mariners signed them to multi-million dollar bonuses because they believed in them heavily.

This can obviously change within a week; within a day, even. The DSL environment is chaotic, and signals change often. But for now, the Model likes Jarvis Gomez the most out of these three elite prospects. If you’re in a league that rosters 200+ prospects, I’d say he’s a great add.

If you’d like to take a deep look at the top 20 Seed Stage prospects (as of today, 8/1) and a short blurb on each player, upgrade to a paid subscription! There are currently 12 prospects the model thinks is elite. You’ll also receive access to the subscriber chat here on Substack, where I’ll be answering any questions about international prospects!

Sneak peek:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P7gDTtkt_afYTvg63j9m44t-Id-sA73cMD5bPY9XGEw/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for reading!

With that said, I was working on the model today, and a slight formulaic tweak revealed one more deserving hitter receiving the “elite” designation…

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We have just over a month until the DSL Finals, which means plate appearances are starting to escape the “small sample” allegations. In other words we can start actually getting excited about the players labeled “elite” by the Seed Stage Model.

“Are you delegitimizing every claim about every prospect you’ve made before today?” No, of course not. Players that tickle the model’s antenna early on have a much higher chance at aggressively tickling the model’s radar when all is said and done. And with that, let’s get into the sneakiest buys of this week:

Enrique Oropeza

Oropeza was an unheralded signing by the Cubs for $55,000. The 6’2”, 186 pound right fielder has a couple things going against him: he’s only played one game in center field, he projects to be a high strikeout guy, and his swing looks really weird. We’ll explore all of those shortfalls, as well as why his power makes up for it and then some.

The Cubs seem adamant in playing 18 year old Juan De Jesus in CF over Oropeza, which is slightly concerning. Whenever a team actively pigeonholes a young player into a corner outfield spot, it means that they don’t believe in their projectability at CF, or the guy playing CF is too elite of a defensive player to not give him as many high quality reps as possible. In the Cubs’ case, it’s interesting. De Jesus isn’t some big name bat that they invested millions into; his signing bonus is undisclosed. If I had to guess, it’s a little bit of both: De Jesus happened to be an elite center fielder, and Oropeza just isn’t as good of a defender in the Cubs’ eyes.

Let’s get into the swing, because it might explain his whiff issues:

This is after he makes contact with the ball. Conventionally, you bend the elbows at contact, then extend them to drive the ball out further. What he’s doing here is maintaining that elbow bend through contact and jamming up his swing. His head remains stable and doesn’t jerk around during his swing, but it’s concerning nonetheless. (Note: this video is from October of last year; while I don’t believe he’s fixed this issue, it’s been almost a year, and anything can happen) (Double Note: as I’m writing this I’m realizing he and the Cubs probably fixed this issue, but what he is doing in the power department is impressive regardless).

Oropeza says, “watch me,” as he is hitting to the tune of a .295 ISO and .632 SLG. He is also showing some patience at the plate, walking as much as he is striking out. For reference, the only 17 year old hitters in the last 20 years to hold at least a 1.00 BB/K and .290 ISO through 120 plate appearances is Oropeza, Leanders Matos and Rainiel Rodriguez. That is some elite company to be in.

If Oropeza is doing this with the pictured swing, who knows how much power he truly possesses? And if Oropeza fixed the swing, it might put to bed the whiff concerns. Either way, this is a bat that looks powerful enough to overcome any sort of defensive home concerns. If there ever was a time to invest in a young bat first player, now is the time. He’s an awesome add in leagues that roster 150+ prospects.

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Sebastian Rojas

Sebastian Rojas is a catcher signed for $450,000 by the Cardinals. Listed at 5’11” 195 pounds, he is in the ideal range for a catcher to be in at 17. Rojas is an entirely different flavor of prospect compared to Oropeza; while Rojas has similar power (.267 ISO, .628 SLG), Rojas is far more aggressive at the plate, running a 9.6% BB%. We’ll explore why this aggressiveness is actually a virtue and the players he compares to.

If you read last week’s Before the Bloom, you’d find this familiar. He’s in the same lane as Abel Sosa: the aggressive hitter who is elite at getting on base. Here at Seed Stage Scouting we call it “Selective Aggression”; it’s a fundamentally sound profile that time and time again reveals extremely high upside prospects from a young age. Luckily for us, I found video of Rojas’ recent swing mechanics:

Look at the way he torques his torso; the hips are clearly leading the way, and you can visually see his upper body turning into a spring as he prepares to blast the ball the other way. This is right after contact:

His elbows are extended, with the white blur at the top left acting as visual proof that he drove the ball to his pull side effectively. It’s a sound, powerful swing that explains his power output.

Quick warning, the last time he played was 7/14. This could mean that he’s injured, or it could be a planned period of rest and reset by the Cardinals to work on his mechanics. I haven’t seen anything about injury, so let’s hope that he returns to the field sooner rather than later.

The ceiling is immense (catchers who earned the Selective Aggression designation include Iván Herrera and Keibert Ruiz), and I find his profile easier to believe than Abel Sosa’s. If you’re in a league that rosters 150+ prospects, I’d say he is a worthy add. I’d understand if you want to wait until he returns, though.

If you’d like to take a deep look at the top 20 Seed Stage prospects (as of today, 7/25) and a short blurb on each player, upgrade to a paid subscription! You’ll also receive access to the subscriber chat here on Substack, where I’ll be answering any questions about international prospects! Last but not least, I’ve been working on a different version of the model that only tracks 18 year old hitters (the Seed Stage Model is mostly age 16/17), and will be sharing results soon.

Sneak peek:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/141Wr2qGeQsQCPQwzLWTlEImzbZbwDJmmYCkNUGAP55o/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for following, and see you next week.

“Week 7? This is your first one!” I spent quite a bit of time trying to decide on whether to call this Before the Bloom debut Week 1 or Week 7, but ultimately went with what I think is the more logical choice: it’s the end of the seventh week of the Dominican Summer League.

Note: all stats are as of 7/16, so apologies for the minor discrepancies.

Without further ado, here are the names that are making a lot of noise and not a lot of industry hype:

Ronald Cardozo

Cardozo (C/1B, CHW) was signed for $375,000, a modest number compared to the seven figure bonuses dished out to the high pedigree guys.

He’s also a massive human being. 6’5”, 198 pounds at 17 is almost unheard of. To put this into context, he’s an inch taller than Freddie Freeman.

You’d expect him to have the typical “tall, lanky with long levers and a huge strikeout box” problem. Look no further than Kevin Alcántara of the Cubs: 6’6”, 188 pounds, and never struck out less than 23% of the time once he came stateside. He had a 0.22 BB/K in the DSL. Currently, he has struggled to cement himself as a regular major league option in the outfield due to the high strikeout rates (and frankly, not enough time to settle in; 18 plate appearances is the most he’s played at the MLB level in a season).

Enter Ronald Cardozo. He’s currently walking more than he’s striking out: 15.7% BB%, and a 13.0% K%. There are 43 qualified bats aged 17 or younger with a lower K%. The next tallest guy in that group is Abel Sosa at 6’3” (P.S. more on him later) (P.S.S. tall players + low K% = good?).

The power is apparent: .607 SLG, .281 ISO, 12 extra-base hits. His ISO leads all catchers in the DSL. Look at his hip shoulder separation at the heel strike:

With great separation comes great power. As a hitter with long levers, a simple lower half operation is preferable. His timing mechanics look decent and synced-up; small leg raise, slight hand rhythm and a single pump of the elbows as the pitcher lifts his leg. He loads most of his weight on his back foot pre-swing, eliminating the need to take a pronounced step with his front foot to get into leverage.

No red flags in the batted ball profile. 39.5% groundball rate, 15.2% in-field flyball rate, and 17.1% line drive rate. All indications of a healthy, balanced hitter.

Long term, this is likely a 1B profile. The White Sox will definitely try to make him one of the tallest catchers ever, but at some point the extra wear and tear of catcher duties at 6’5” will probably push him out of that role.

He ranks #3 in the Seed Stage DSL leaderboard and is a strong buy in leagues that roster 150+ prospects.

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Abel Sosa

Sosa is a 6’3” 165 pound OF signed by the Twins for $797,500. As mentioned, Sosa is similar to Cardozo in that they are both tall and limit strikeouts extremely well for their height. Where they diverge, however, is how disciplined they are at the plate.

Sosa holds a slightly more aggressive 9.8% BB% and 12.7% K% (this is still considered elite for a tall, lanky 17 year old). His numbers admittedly look pedestrian (for the DSL): .333 / .402 / .500 with a .167 ISO. If you track any of the DSL headlines, you’ll see this: “16 year old is running a .328 ISO,” or “[Enter high pedigree 17 year old name here] hits his 5th home run in 10 games!”

Where his profile gets exciting is that he triggers the “Selective Aggression” matrix. Prospects with the Selective Aggression tag manage a high on-base percentage even while walking at a below average rate. These two metrics seem to run contrary to one another, but that is exactly what makes this matrix extremely powerful. It essentially finds batters that get on base without the aid of walks.

The ceiling is Juan Soto. Soto triggered the very same matrix that Sosa currently satisfies, but what allowed him to truly flourish into a generational talent is the fact that he learned to be one of the most selective hitters by the time he got to the big leagues. When explaining why Soto runs a .400+ OBP every year, everyone points to his walk rate as an easy explanation. But what often gets overlooked is the signal he blasted out into the world at 17 years of age.

What’s scary about this cohort is that the floor is someone like Keibert Ruiz. Ruiz never learned to be selective, and continues to be one of the more chase-happy bats in the MLB, with a 35+% chase rate in each of his last three seasons.

Sosa stands ever so slightly taller than Cardozo in his coil phase:

It’s an explosive swing that proves his power potential is astronomical. His hips are noticeably less open than Cardozo’s, however.

I see it quite unlikely that he finishes the season as a Selective Aggression profile, but his chances are one of the best among his peers. He can probably stay on your watch list until further notice, but I would certainly applaud a speculative waiver claim in leagues with 300+ prospects.

If you’d like to take a deep look at the top 20 Seed Stage prospects (as of today, 7/18) and a short blurb on each player, upgrade to a paid subscription! You’ll also receive access to the subscriber chat, where I’ll be answering any questions about international prospects!

Link to spreadsheet:

(Top 3 Sneak Peek) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nF0-otT7T1rX9SnYIRuhhPh9_YmhLCajr2qz-zxuVo0/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks for following, and see you next week.

Every summer, thousands of 17 year old hitters step onto the backfields of the Dominican Republic. But most don’t care.

To even the most seasoned scouts and analysts, the DSL is a difficult puzzle to crack: no exit velocity, no pitch type mapping, and a small sample bias.

A hitter is mashing .324/.417/.539? Well… it’s the DSL. “It’s nothing really special because DSL pitchers are so raw and have no command.” That’s the sentiment that has become accepted industry-wide over the years.

The Solution

Over the last year, I’ve been developing a model focused strictly on international complex-league hitters aged 18 and under. This level of dedicated fixation on a very specific cohort of players is exactly how the model achieves maximum accuracy in such a chaotic environment.

The main challenge: finding combinations of generic box score stats that, when put together, reveal directional trends of a hitter’s fundamental DNA.

I looked at Juan Soto, Junior Caminero, Ronald Acuña Jr., etc. What did these superstars have in common when they were 17? While I won’t do a deep dive here, reverse engineering is how I arrived at the automated Seed Stage Model.

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1. The Model, Presented to You

This obsession of mine is like an avalanche. In the beginning, I was building spreadsheets, trying to manually compare between two 17 year old profiles one by one.

Now, I feel compelled to share the fruits of my efforts, not only because I want to build a community of avid baseball fans, but also because I truly believe that this tool is something the public prospect world has never seen before.

2. What To Expect

Everything I write will be free. At the end of every post, I’ll link a spreadsheet on the most up to date top 10 rankings for the current DSL cycle, along with notes for each player, available to Paid subscribers.

This spreadsheet is dynamically updated by the engine every week, giving you a level of understanding of the DSL landscape like no other.

For the DSL season, you can expect a post per week, outlining the hottest players and best buys.

In the offseason, I’ll be exploring historical model hits and outlining how they’re doing in full season ball. Of course, we’ll also be tracking model misses and explore why they couldn’t reach the levels of their peers.

Sneak Peek

The model identified Ronald Acuña Jr. as an elite talent in 2015, after his first two months of professional ball as a 17 year old. He would deal with a broken thumb in his sophomore season, then undergo a full breakout into top 100 lists in 2017.

That same model has identified Angeibel Gomez as the #1 prospect in the Rookie levels through the first month of action. Signed out of Venezuela for $2,900,000, the outfielder is slashing .325/.461/.588 with 4 HR and 10 SB.

If you’re in a 14+ team dynasty league and he’s on waivers, snatch him up!